Consumer confidence falls Post-Black Friday while business optimism holds steady

ANZ-Roy Morgan data showed consumer confidence fell 2.9 points to 85.5 post-Black Friday, while business confidence held steady, fuelled by investment optimism.

Consumer confidence falls after Black Friday sales

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index dropped 2.9 points to 85.5 following the conclusion of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales period. The decline comes amid soft Q3 GDP data and ongoing concerns over personal financial outlooks.

While confidence remains 4.7 points higher than the same period in 2023, significant pessimism surrounds household finances:

• Only 22% (down 1 point) feel better off than a year ago, while 50% (up 3 points) report being worse off.
• Looking ahead, 32% (down 2 points) expect financial improvement over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 4 points) expect deterioration.

“The biggest falls were in households’ confidence in their financial conditions, especially over the next 12 months,” ANZ economist Madeline Dunk (pictured above left) said. “The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declined 2.7 points... though still at its second-strongest level since May 2022.”

Business confidence steady amid positive investment sentiment

While consumer sentiment faltered, Roy Morgan Business Confidence remained stable at 106.9 in November – its highest sustained level since April 2022. Businesses showed growing optimism about investment prospects:

• 46.3% (up 3.4 points) believe the next 12 months will be a “good time to invest,” the highest net rating since February 2022.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine (pictured above right) attributed this resilience to expectations of future interest rate cuts.
“The reduction in the official ABS inflation estimates... is building expectations that the Reserve Bank will soon be embarking on a new cycle of interest rate cuts early in the new year,” Levine said.

State-by-state sentiment diverges

• Consumer confidence weakened in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but rose in Victoria and South Australia.
• Business confidence surged in Queensland (123.8) and South Australia (126.1), while Victoria (93.8) and Tasmania (87.2) remained below the neutral level of 100.

Mixed economic outlook ahead

Short-term economic confidence remains weak, with only 9% of Australians expecting “good times” for the economy in the next 12 months.

However, businesses remain far more optimistic about their individual performance and investment opportunities.

As inflation expectations ease and interest rate cuts loom, confidence levels for both households and businesses will likely hinge on the economic trajectory in early 2025, Roy Morgan reported.

Read more about the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence and business confidence.

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