Consumer confidence bounces back

Inflation expectations rise as financial conditions show mixed signals

Consumer confidence bounces back

News

By Mina Martin

Consumer confidence saw a slight decline last week, dropping 1.1 points to 86.4 points, following a notable 4.1-point increase the previous week, according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan report.

However, the four-week moving average has risen by 1.1 points, now sitting at 85.2 points.

Inflation expectations and financial conditions

Weekly inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%, while the four-week moving average remained steady at 4.7%.

Current financial conditions over the past year eased by 0.7 points, and future financial conditions for the next 12 months declined by 3.1 points.

“Despite a slight pullback last week, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence is up three points over the past fortnight,” ANZ economist Madeline Dunk (pictured above) said.

Dunk added that the series’ four-week moving average is now at a 20-month high.

Economic confidence insights

Short-term economic confidence, which looks at the next 12 months, rose by 0.6 points, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years fell by 0.5 points.

Additionally, the sub-index measuring the “time to buy a major household item” dropped by 2.1 points.

On a four-week moving average basis, confidence in current and future financial conditions is at its highest level since the first quarter of 2023. Notably, the future financial conditions metric remains the only sub-index in positive territory, above the 100 mark.

Consumer confidence among different household types

Since the end of June, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence has seen the most significant increase among renters, followed by homeowners without a mortgage.

While those paying off a mortgage also reported an uptick in confidence, it was less pronounced than in the other two groups.

The four-week moving average of confidence among renters is now at its highest level since March 2023.

To access the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence media release, click here. To compare with the previous report, click here.

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