Amid ongoing debate about Sydney’s property market future, the Shore Financial State of Sydney Report brings clarity, predicting varying degrees of growth across the city.
Shore Financial CEO Theo Chambers (pictured above) reflected on the market’s transformation over the past year and the divided opinions on its direction in 2024.
“This time last year, we were emerging from a correction, and, while we thought the downturn was behind us, no one could say for sure,” Chambers said. “As it turned out, a year of uninterrupted growth followed.
“Now, the situation is different and there are two schools of thought around how things will play out over the next 12 months.
“One group believes house prices will soon decline, due to affordability constraints, and that Sydney’s median house price will be lower at the end of 2024 than the start. The other group believes demand will continue to outstrip very limited house supply, particularly if interest rates start falling towards the end of the year, and that 2024 will be another year of growth.”
He said the research conducted for the Shore Financial State of Sydney Report leads them to predict an increase in Sydney’s median house price by the end of 2024. He pointed out that, unlike the widespread growth seen in 2023, 2024 might witness more variability with most suburbs expected to grow, some to stagnate, and a few potentially to decline.
“The more affordable end of the market, in the western suburbs, south-western suburbs and Blue Mountains, is likely to experience stronger price growth than some of the more affluent suburbs, in the north and east of the city,” Chambers said.
The report categorised Sydney’s suburbs into five quintiles – from Heartland Sydney, Suburban Sydney, Rising Sydney, Professional Sydney, and Affluent Sydney – based on median asking prices, then selected the top five growth prospects in each category. Criteria include asking prices, market days, inventory levels, and sales volumes, aiming to forecast six-month price growth trends.
Highlighted growth suburbs span across Sydney’s spectrum, from Springwood in Heartland Sydney to Middle Dural in Affluent Sydney. These areas represent the diversity of investment opportunities within the city's varied property landscape.
See tables below for the top-five suburbs for each quintile.
Early 2024 auction results showed a significant increase in listings and scheduled auctions, signaling confidence among buyers and sellers.
“Buyers are confident about the future of the Sydney market, so sellers are confident about listing their home for sale,” Chambers said.
Chambers advised a long-term perspective for both owner-occupiers and investors, highlighting the importance of choosing a home based on lifestyle preferences or long-term investment benefits rather than short-term market fluctuations.
“If you’re an owner-occupier, it makes more sense to focus on where you want to live and what you can afford, rather than short-term price movements,” he said. “True, some suburbs will outperform others, but that shouldn’t matter if you’re happy with your choice of home.
“If you’re an investor, it makes even less sense to focus on the short-term. Presumably, anyone who invests in Sydney property believes – with good reason – that Sydney prices are likely to grow strongly over the long term. In that case, time in the market is more important than timing the market.”
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