Australia’s regional housing markets have demonstrated continued resilience, experiencing a 1% increase in property values over the last quarter, contrasting sharply with a 0.7% decline in capital city values, according to the latest Regional Market Update from CoreLogic.
While regional markets overall have stabilised, individual market growth patterns are seeing shifts, with some areas showing signs of a slowdown.
Western Australia and Queensland led the growth across the country’s 50 largest regional significant urban areas. Notably, Geraldton, Albany, Mackay, Townsville, and Gladstone saw the highest increases.
However, momentum appears to be changing.
Gladstone’s growth rate has notably decreased, halving from a 9.9% rise recorded in July 2024 to a more modest rate. Geraldton’s growth also slowed by 2.6 percentage points from its peak in August.
CoreLogic’s report highlighted a slowdown in 28 markets, with particular easing noted in Queensland and Western Australia.
“Queensland and Western Australia markets have driven regional growth for more than a year; however, they are now clearly losing steam,” said Kaytlin Ezzy (pictured above), CoreLogic Australia economist and report author.
In a recent CoreLogic report, Ezzy attributed the diverging trends between regional and capital city markets to a few key factors: Improved affordability in regional areas, a rise in listings in capital cities, and continued internal migration to regional locations have all played significant roles in shaping these patterns.
Ezzy also pointed out that the affordability concerns might continue to moderate growth as demand dampens.
“The historically affordable mining markets of Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay, and Geraldton, and the coastal markets of Busselton and Bunbury, have all seen significant growth over the past year,” she said, adding that while these markets remain strong, “the slowdown in quarterly growth suggests that peak growth conditions in these areas may have passed.”
In contrast, some regions like Bathurst in NSW are showing signs of recovery, moving from a -1.8% decline in October to a 4.2% increase by January.
Markets in Victoria and southern NSW, previously among the worst performers in 2024, are now showing signs of affordability-driven recovery, CoreLogic reported.
The regional rental markets also saw a pickup, with a 1.6% rise in rents over the quarter compared to a modest 0.3% increase in the capitals.
However, this growth is considered largely seasonal, with the broader annual trend continuing to show a moderation in rental growth rates.
Busselton and Geraldton recorded strong quarterly and annual rental growth, respectively.
