RBA cash rate to remain steady – survey

Experts predict delayed rate cuts

RBA cash rate to remain steady – survey

News

By Mina Martin

In the latest findings from the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, a consensus among all 36 participating experts indicated that the Reserve Bank (RBA) will maintain the cash rate at 4.35% in May.

This marks the third instance this year where a unanimous decision has been projected.

“Promising signs of inflation starting to ease were dampened by higher-than-expected figures from the March quarter,” said Graham Cooke (pictured above), head of consumer research at Finder.

Inflation concerns impact rate decisions

The decision to hold the rate steady comes amid fluctuating economic signals.

Geoffrey Kingston from Macquarie University Business School highlighted the troubling inflation data, suggesting, “It may not be cuts on the way, but hikes.”

On a more optimistic note, Shane Oliver of AMP expects a rate cut later in the year, though he acknowledged the recent unexpected rise in inflation, particularly in services.

Cameron Kusher of REA Group suggested that while a rate hike isn’t imminent, strong CPI numbers could push rate cuts further out.

Harry Murphy Cruise of Moody’s Analytics anticipated a slow reduction in inflation, with the first rate cut potentially delayed until December. Anthony Waldron of Mortgage Choice and Tim Reardon of the Housing Industry Association echoed the sentiment of ongoing high inflation influencing RBA’s decisions.

David Robertson of Bendigo Bank believed, meanwhile, that “Stubbornly high core inflation leaves the RBA with no choice but to maintain tight monetary policy,” indicating a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts.

A long road to homeownership

Finder’s analysis revealed a sobering outlook for prospective homeowners, with NSW residents needing an average of 22 years to save for a house deposit. Victorians face a slightly less daunting, but still challenging, 16 years.

“It’s mind-boggling just how long it takes for the average Aussie to be able to afford their own home,” Cooke said.

Mixed opinions on pricing practices

Finder’s survey also touched on the ongoing supermarket pricing debate, with about 46% of panelists agreeing that the negative media coverage was warranted.

Stella Huangfu from the University of Sydney pointed out that such coverage “can allow consumers to make informed choices and prompt supermarkets to improve their practices.”

However, Saul Eslake from Corinna Economic Advisory and Mark Crosby from Monash University provided counterpoints, citing thin profit margins and competition as factors mitigating concerns over price gouging.

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