Is Australia’s property bubble about to burst?

A property expert was optimistic that the future of the property market wasn’t all “doom and gloom,” despite a survey suggesting Australia’s property bubble will burst soon. 

Lloyd Edge (pictured above), a buyer’s agent and best-selling author of Positively Geared and Buy Now, is expecting to see an uplift in the value of property as soon as the second half of 2023, citing the 1.4% rise in Sydney property prices in March, which indicates that we may have already seen the bottom of the market cycle for now.

Not all Australians share Edge’s positive sentiment, however. A recent nationwide survey commissioned by Aus Property Professionals found that 67% of Australians believed that the country’s property bubble would burst soon.

Of the majority who believed the property bubble is close to bursting, 62% expected it to happen in the next five years, 21% within the next year, and 17% in the next 10 years or more. Interestingly, nearly 30% of Australians ages 55 and over believed the property bubble will burst next year, compared to just 15% of people ages 18-19.

“It’s unsurprising that the sentiment towards property is mostly negative right now, especially with all the pessimistic talk lately,” Edge said. “However, keep in mind that in order for a major housing market crash to happen we would need much higher unemployment rates and a huge oversupply of property. None of these things are occurring right now. Inflation figures have fallen for a second month in a row, there is no sign of a recession at this stage and jobs data remains strong.

“There is also unlikely to be further decline in property prices this year, as the market is stabilizing as interest rate increases start to level off. There are still plenty of buyers in the market and a lack of supply, which is keeping prices up.”

Many homeowners have had a challenging 12 months due to a series of unprecedented rate hikes, which saw them scrambling to keep up with repayments. There’s also the so-called mortgage cliff that is expected to hit in the second half of 2023, which will see roughly 800,000 homes rolling off 2% fixed interest rates to the much pricier 5% or 6% variable rates.

Edge, who bought his first property at the age of 28 on a teacher’s salary of no more than $70,000 per year and now has a property portfolio worth more than $20 million, has the following advice for homeowners concerned about rolling off their fixed interest rate later this year:

• Consider “house-hacking.” That’s when homeowners rent out a portion of their residential property to generate income which they can use to pay off your monthly expenses and mortgage repayments.
• Speak to a mortgage broker. Speaking to a reputable mortgage broker might help homeowners refinance to a better interest rate, which will alleviate some of their pressure. 
• Make additional repayments. Making additional repayments on their mortgage now will save homeowners on interest down the track and put them in a better financial position for when their mortgage becomes variable. 
• Create a savings buffer. Creating a savings buffer of three to five months’ worth of essential expenses will help homeowners feel secure and be prepared for any unexpected financial challenges that might occur. Once their mortgage goes variable, their savings can be put in an offset account, so that they’d pay less interest and put more funds towards the principal each month.
• Invest in cashflow-positive assets. Purchasing an investment property with a high-rental yield will generate more cash flow, although finding one is becoming increasingly challenging with interest rates at the highest they’ve been in several years.

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